No Free Refills!

You know it’s a good week when you check the leaderboard and see your name at the very top.   I need another good week to catch up to the top guys in the YTD race.  I’m currently 18th.

The moves today… I shorted the openers (didn’t short Taken, which was a mistake… instead shorted New in Town and the horror movie).  Those adjusted smallish and after the reset I took enough money out to long the three movies I could find news on :

Airbender : The Last Avater (BENDR) : picked up the kid from slumdog in the cast, looks like it starts shooting March and Shyamalan is planning a trilogy and it has a release date in 2010.  I could see this being big.  It’s currently sub 50, and I could easily see this being near the top of the list for 2010 releases… it’s a long time away, but just the news should push it up a little in the next couple of days.

Silence (SILEN) : this was the other movie that Variety had some news on… it looks like Martin Scorsese is “determined to make [Silence] his next movie”.  Javier Bardem was attached, but now it looks like Scorsese is talking with Daniel Day-Lewis and Benecio Del Toro.  Del Toro is easily hands down one of my all-time favorite actors… I think my favorite Benecio Del Toro movie is probably Way of the Gun.  This one sounds like it has potential, and it’s at less than 10 so it doesn’t really have anywhere to go except up.

Highlander (HIGHL) : this one of the top percentage gainers after the reset tonight… it shot up .91 for almost a 10% gain, but I hadn’t heard any news.  I did a search and it looks like the remake of the old Highlander movie got a writer attached… one of the Iron Man writers.  This was such a cool universe, and the Highlander TV series was one of my favorites growing up.  Didn’t really care for any of the movies except for the first one… so it’s nice to see it might get a modern face-lift.  The only news I found wasn’t even on the official movie site, so who knows… but maybe the news/rumor will reach the movie board and/or some film websites and drive the price up… the stock is only at 10.91, so even small increases translate to some big ROI %s.  I stumbled on a rumor of a Highlander : The Gathering MMORPG in development… that would rock to see that hit the shelves and be decent.

Kavalier and Clay (KAVCL): Can’t find any news to explain why this stock has gone up almost 100% in the last week… one or two days I could just blame on regular trading… but it’s gone up steady all week.  It’s only at 2.50, so I figured it’s a good pick-up in case there is some news brewing about this that is about to hit, like a star cast for a role or something.  If this looks like it might see the light of day and a wide release with a decent start attached, then this is a steal at 2.50.

Slumdog didn’t do as well as I had predicted, but it still was a decent positive move upwards. After some aggressive trading this week, I now have the port to over 3 million. There’s some decent money to be made this weekend, as three Oscar contenders go wide… Milk, The Reader, and The Wrestler. And then there’s Taken, which I think is going to do much better than the HSX price predicts. Here’s my analysis of the weekend openers. The quick summary : even with the Super Bowl, which will really hurt the Sunday numbers, EVERYTHING halting is a long.

I’m going to be putting everything in the openers, as opposed to playing the IPOs, since there’s really not a lot of interesting ones this weekend… the Saturday IPO is Moby Dick, which sounds ok. It’s got the director from Wanted and Night Watch. He’s kind of weird, and until this one gets a few stars attached it wouldn’t surprise me to see it fall into development hell and never actually see the light of day.

One thing I need to research this weekend is how the movies that open on Super Bowl weekend actually fare compared to their adust. Sunday’s numbers are going to be destroyed by the game, which may mean that the 2.7 adjust will be a little low… so it might not be a good idea to auto-short the openers after they adust like I usually do.

Milk (HMILK) : Currently at 28.35.
Expands to 882 theatres, so it will be adjusting to 3 x the weekend b.o. + the 22mil it’s already made. It’s hard for me to see this movie making less than $3,000/theatre… so I think a $2.5mil weekend is the low range and $5mil is the high range. If it does $2.5mil, it’ll adjust to 29.5 for a 4% ROI. If it does 5m, it’ll show a 30% ROI.
Verdict : I think this is a pretty safe long.

The Reader (READR) : Currently at 16.46.
Expands to 1002 theatres, getting the 3 x weekend + previous box office of 10.25mil. I can’t see this one doing less than 2mil this weekend, or more than 4mil. If it does 2mil, it’ll adjust to 16.25 for a wash. If it has a solid PSA of $4,000 (which I could see possibly happening, given the oscar buzz for Kate Winslet), it would adjust to 22.25 for an ROI of a whopping 35%.
Verdict : Might be a very nice surprise for the longers.

The Wrestler (WREST) : Currently at 23.69
Expands to 722 theatres, also getting the generous 3x adjust. I had the chance to see this movie, and it was good. But I don’t think it’s going to have a spectacular weekend. I’d be surprised if it could hold more than a 5,000 PSA with the expansion. A $3.5m weekend sounds about right to me. I think this movie will adust to 24.20.
Verdict : Slight long. Probably a wash and less than a point adjust.

Taken (TAKEN) : Currently at 47.04
This one is going very wide at 3183 theatres. Everyone I’ve asked has wanted to see this movie based on the preview, which is VERY well done and is being played over and over on every able show I’ve been watching. This looks like it is going to be a success story to me. I don’t see it doing less than 5,500 PSA, which is what it would need to do to make it’s current price. If it hits just $20mil, it’ll adjust to 54 for a 15% ROI. But if it blows everyone out of the water with a 10,000 PSA, we’re looking at a $31.8m weekend with an adust to 85.86 for an ROI of 82%. I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility.
Verdict : This is where I’m putting my eggs. The risk is slim and the potential upside is HUGE.

New In Town (NTOWN) : Currently at 17.48
It’s only getting 1941 theatres, which is a bad sign. The 13% Rotten Tomatoes rating is even worse. But if Bride Wars can do a 6,000 PSA, I think this one can do at least a 4000 PSA, so I think it’ll do $8mil this weekend for a positive adjust. HSX certainly isn’t giving it a lot of credit. But Harry Connick Jr. was the first concert I ever saw… and that concert hall was packed. He has a following. So does Bridget Jones. I think it’s dangerous to bet against this movie.
Verdict : I think this one will upset a lot of HSX shorters and will adjust up to about a 20% ROI.

The Uninvited (UNVIT) : Currently at 28.68
It’s getting 2344 theatres and I can’t see any reason why this wouldn’t perform about the same as The Eye did, for about 5000 PSA and an $11.5m weekend.
Verdict : Long… will adjust up to 31 for a 9% ROI.

Not just wide… 1400 theatres wide, which is about 400 theatres more than anyone would have expected. Led to an immediate jump of almost 6 points which I didn’t get to take advantage of because I was busy working… but I did get back on HSX in time for the 10:00 PST reset, and expect the stock to go up even more before it’s halted tomorrow.

Looks like it’s going to be a very lazy weekend on HSX for me, as I put every single penny I have into SLUMD, except for the shorts I have on the put options for Inkheart and Underworld 3, which I expect to get an ROI of 100% on… and also the 6k I have shorting the stock that’s delisting at 0 on Tuesday… also 100% ROI. Given the best picture nomination announcement, I expect this to be a very big weekend for Danny Boyle and my HSX port.

My prediction is that Slumdog does $16.8m this weekend, so it will adjust at 95 on Sunday for about a 50% ROI on my whole port… so hopefully I’ll be just a tad under 3mil by this time Sunday.

So this movie is now going wide this weekend, which gives it a full month before it will delist. There’s a very good ROI to be made here. Putting in a good chunk of money and plan on putting in even more before it’s halted, even though I think after last week’s disaster it’s a bad idea to play weekend openers on a small port.

The weekend picks were horrible for me. Both were longs and now my very new port is down to $1.6m and change… I’m trailing the guys that are just starting out. Not a great way to start the YTD race, and I’m discouraged to the point where I almost want to give up… or just start a new port.

But no… I will keep playing this port and try to claw my way back.

I just reset my port today to make the race for the 2009 YTD leader. Going to be doing some pretty active trading. So far I just shorted the two IPOs today and one of the weekend openers, Defiance. Before I reset I was the leader for the month and took a screenshot that I’ll post later. It might be the only time I’m in the #1 spot at HSX… hopefully not.

So far, TOY3D is up $2 and T2Y3D is up $1.50. It makes sense that Toy Story 2 would be slightly less of a gain… it’s likely they’ll both make about the same, but the sequal is being released several months after the first one so the ROI% has to be lower. Planning on riding these until the upward movement stops.